A new study has discovered a connection between hurricane size and warm spots in the ocean. It could help forecasters to predict the impact of these damaging storms.
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Hurricanes grow bigger and quicker under certain ocean conditions, a new study reveals.
Climate change supercharges hurricanes, but a new study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), shows how specific ocean conditions can fuel larger hurricanes.
These fast-growing storms can have extreme consequences. Last year’s Hurricane Helene expanded substantially before it reached land, becoming the third-deadliest hurricane of the modern era, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.
"A larger storm has a larger footprint of damaging winds, generates higher storm surge and over a larger area, and produces more rainfall—all greater risks to society," says Danyang Wang, postdoctoral researcher at Purdue University.
Why do some hurricanes grow larger than others?
Not all hurricanes are created equal. The Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, better known by its rankings of categories 1 through 5, measures a storm’s intensity based on wind speed.
Past research suggests that hurricanes become more intense as temperature rises. But two hurricanes with the same maximum wind speed can grow to be different sizes. And little is known about how temperature impacts their expansion
The new study analysed historical observation data, looking at how hurricane sizes changed according to sea surface temperature. Researchers identified a connection between storm growth and ocean "hot spots”, or localised areas where the water is significantly warmer. These warm regions were more likely to support rapidly growing storms that can cause more damage.
Interestingly, the study found that hurricane growth rates didn’t change much with overall global warming.
How can models be improved?
Hurricane season is in full swing. Hurricane Gabrielle is currently intensifying off the coast of Bermuda.
As these intense hurricanes become more common, researchers emphasise the importance of improving forecasting methods to allow for adequate preparation.
Recognising the contribution of sea surface warming could be one way to do so. As Wang says, this new discovery can be applied to daily forecasting methods of both hurricane size and impact.
"It can also be used to better model hurricane size in long-term risk models used by industry to evaluate property risks,” he says.
