Brussels wants the COP31 to speed up the transition from fossil fuels, but in a world where energy security and affordability are rising up the agenda, more and more governments are seeking short term oil and gas options.
While European leaders gather at COP31 to discuss how to wean their economies off fossil fuels, many of their governments are scrambling to secure more of them.
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The energy turmoil triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran has kept oil and gas at the centre of Europe's economic and geopolitical calculations.
Faced with soaring energy prices, potential supply shortages and mounting pressure from struggling industries, several EU governments are prioritising affordable, reliable energy over longer-term climate commitments – even as delegates at the UN climate summit debate how to phase out fossil fuels.
Although all 27 member states have endorsed the EU's position at COP31, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
New supply deals, expanded import capacity and renewed interest in domestic production are becoming central to Europe's response to a crisis that has exposed just how dependent many of its economies remain on fossil fuels.
Hungarian Energy Minister István Kapitány recently said Budapest was discussing gas purchases from Romania's Neptun Deep field and seeking greater access to Croatian and Greek liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals.
“If someone stands on one leg, security is the most important question,” Kapitány told the G7 Paradigma energy conference, referring to Hungary's dependence on a limited number of oil and gas suppliers.
György Bacsa, CEO of Hungarian oil and gas multinational MOL, warned that cutting ties with Russian energy supplies could come at a heavy economic cost.
"This is also a question of affordability. Today, you have to pay such a premium for basic raw materials and energy supplies that, at a certain point, it can lead to societal dysfunction," Bacsa told Euronews.
He said the situation was "no longer a marginal issue where you are simply willing to pay 10 or 20 percent more for green or non-Russian energy".
Bacsa warned that soaring energy bills could "seriously undermine" the Hungarian and Slovak economies, potentially triggering a political crisis with wider European repercussions.
"The consequences of such a crisis would be unpredictable and could have repercussions for European politics as a whole," Bacsa said.
Croatia, meanwhile, wants to use its Krk LNG terminal and port infrastructure to reduce its neighbours' dependence on Russian gas.
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has argued that the Adriatic pipeline offers an alternative to Russian oil for landlocked neighbours — even if Budapest and Bratislava argue that such an alternative comes at a higher price.
For Greece, energy security is increasingly a matter of national sovereignty.
Ahead of COP31, Greek Environment and Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou argued that countries should not have to choose between protecting the climate and securing their energy supplies.
“Harnessing our energy resources is a matter of national importance,” Papastavrou told local media as Greece is embarking on a new offshore project.
Greece wants to reduce dependence on Russian energy and strengthen links with the United States, Cyprus, Egypt and the Balkans. That decision makes liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas infrastructure part of its foreign policy strategy, not merely an energy-market question.
Greece has also transformed its electricity mix, with wind and solar accounting for more than 40% of generation in 2025. Yet despite further investment in clean energy, their share of electricity generation failed to increase that year, while gas gained ground.
Romania is similarly positioning itself as a regional energy supplier.
Speaking in Abu Dhabi on 3 November, Romanian State Secretary for Energy Marius-Viorel Poșa promoted the country as an investment destination.
“Romania's energy resources and infrastructure position it as an energy hub in Central and Eastern Europe and an attractive investment destination,” he said.
Poșa highlighted the Black Sea's Neptun Deep gas project, which is expected to supply Romania and neighbouring countries, alongside investments in wind power, the Cernavodă nuclear plant and regional electricity interconnections.
But Bucharest is also concerned about the economic cost of decarbonisation.
At a meeting of EU energy ministers on 15 October, Romanian Energy Minister Dumitru Chisăliță backed the energy transition while warning against measures that could undermine industrial competitiveness.
Romanian industrial production was 2.6% below the previous year's level, one of the sharpest contractions in the EU, according to Eurostat.
“Companies need predictable rules and realistic deadlines for adaptation and investment. We must pursue decarbonisation objectives while taking into account their effects on security of supply, the economy and consumers,” Chisăliță said.
Fragmented position
With governments facing domestic resistance and a global energy crisis, Brussels is playing down expectations of a major breakthrough on fossil fuels at COP31.
According to a senior Commission official, the EU wants COP31 to build on the historic commitment made at COP28 in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels, but securing progress on that promise will be "politically difficult".
Brussels has welcomed a roadmap presented by the Brazilian COP30 presidency on transitioning away from fossil fuels, describing it as an opportunity to give fresh momentum to the commitment made in Dubai.
Shortly afterward and encouraged by COP30, 57 countries, including 14 European countries, backed a declaration to develop roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels at the Santa Marta conference in Colombia.
"We do hope that the Brazilian roadmap will inspire an increasing number of countries to sign up and to make work of it," the senior Commission official said.
However, as Turkey hosts the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, its official focus on electrification is facing intense criticism from environmental groups over its ongoing fossil fuel reliance and expansion.