Despite Brussels touting fewer migrant arrivals, tighter asylum rules and African deals have only temporarily diverted irregular routes, with new passages to Europe possible in 2026.
Tighter EU borders and migration deals with African countries have failed to reduce the number of departures from Africa, but merely temporarily diverted irregular routes, according to a report by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), seen by Euronews.
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The ICMPD, an organisation that works for the EU and European governments to develop migration policies, analysed the major mobility trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, revealing that “recent patterns show that intensified controls do not necessarily reduce overall mobility but instead redirect movement towards alternative, often longer and riskier routes”, the report says.
In recent years, the EU has expanded its migration partnerships with African countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Senegal, and Mauritania. These agreements typically involve local authorities strengthening border controls to curb irregular departures toward Europe, while the EU provides financial support and invests in a wide range of development and cooperation projects in return.
At the same time, the EU revised its internal migration management framework through the Asylum and Migration Pact, a package of laws approved during the last mandate that harmonises border procedures and establishes common rules for handling irregular arrivals across member states.
The reforms reduced access to asylum and overall arrivals to Europe. However, the situation could evolve in different ways, including the emergence of new routes — potentially toward Europe.
"Tightening border controls across key migration routes is expected to further reshape routes in 2026, without fundamentally reducing overall mobility levels”, the document says.
New flows to Europe?
On several occasions, the EU has celebrated a reduction in the number of third-country nationals, mainly from Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, arriving in Europe via African transit routes.
However, reshaping of mobility could also lead to new irregular flows towards Europe, particularly noting the impact that instability in the Middle East may have on mobility in Africa.
"The impact of these escalations cannot be assessed at the time of writing; however, it cannot be ruled out that migrants from Africa going to the Gulf countries may wish to seek alternative destinations in 2026, including in Europe", the document says.
The irregular route from the Horn of Africa via Somalia and Djibouti to Gulf countries is still one of the most used. Data from the UN agency for migration (IOM) shows that there has been a sharp increase of departures from Sub-Saharan Africa to Gulf countries by 34% between 2024 and 2025.
Root causes and routes diversification
Increasing border controls reshape mobility but do not address migration structural drivers, such as protracted conflicts or insecurity, significant demographic growth, limited labour absorption, climate shocks, as well as drastic recent cuts in humanitarian assistance by the US and European governments, the document says.
But number of arrivals to Europe are temporarily lower. According to the latest data from the EU border agency Frontex, irregular border crossings at the EU’s external border “fell by over one-quarter (26 %) in 2025”.
The sharper decrease occurred alongside the Western African route, that "could be explained by recent partnerships between the EU and key African countries (Morocco, Senegal and Mauritania)", the document says.
But the route from Mauritania to the Canary Islands have been diverted. Departures occurs now from Gambia or Guinea, the document says, making the transit via sea longer and riskier.
Frontex also said that the Eastern Mediterranean migration route towards Europe registered a less pronounced decrease overall, as the corridor connecting Eastern Libya to the island of Crete remained active and even tripled in 2025.