In a single day, the share price of two holding companies on the Budapest Stock Exchange with a thousand links to the Orbán regime, 4iG and Opus Global, fell 10-12%.
On Wednesday, just after 3 pm, Hungarian pollster Medián — one of the country's most accurate forecasters with a 30-year track record — published an opinion poll showing a 23-point lead for the opposition Tisza Party among voters.
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The forint jumped on the news, and the Budapest Stock Exchange saw selling in OPUS Global and 4iG, two companies with deep ties to the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Both are holding companies encompassing a wide range of businesses, with the common thread that they primarily work with the Hungarian state.
OPUS is linked to Orbán's childhood friend and Hungary's richest man, Lőrinc Mészáros, while 4iG is associated with businessman Gellért Jászai, who emerged from Mészáros' circle to become a company owner in his own right.
According to OPUS's stock exchange listing, it is "primarily involved in the management of companies with different profiles and asset management".
4iG's main focus is telecommunications — it acquired one of Hungary's three mobile operators from Vodafone with state support — but it is also active in the space sector and other state-backed areas.
4iG's share price surged in early November when Orbán took the company's executives to the US for talks with US President Donald Trump.
At that time, shares were trading at 4,920 Hungarian forints (€12.63). A gradual decline followed, and by around 20 March the price had fallen below 3,000 HUF (€7.70).
On Wednesday, following the publication of the Medián poll, shares dropped further to 2,280 HUF (€5.85) at 14:30 CET — losing more than 22% of their value in two days and 54% from their November peak.
OPUS Global peaked last July at 600 HUF (€1.54), was trading at 472 HUF (€1.21) when the Medián survey was published, and stood at 391 HUF (€1) on Friday afternoon — down more than 17% since 25 March and 35% from its summer peak.
A boosted forint
The mere hope of a change of government boosted the forint.
Following the publication of Medián's research, the forint — which had been weakening against a backdrop of the Iran conflict and broader international uncertainty — immediately strengthened, gaining 4 units in the space of an hour, from 389 to 385 to the euro at around 3 pm CET.
By late afternoon on Friday, however, the EUR/HUF rate had returned to 389.
Investors are betting that a change of government would restore Hungary's access to EU funds currently blocked, reduce sovereign risk and improve the fiscal situation.
The odds of Orbán remaining prime minister have been falling on Polymarket, the US-based prediction platform, which currently puts the probability of a Tisza party and Péter Magyar victory at 63% against 37% for Orbán.
Polymarket has been inaccessible in Hungary since January, when authorities blocked the site citing illegal gambling — shortly after the Hungarian press began reporting on its election odds.
Packing oligarchs
It appears that businessmen close to Orbán are also repositioning themselves.
According to independent news portal 444, the son of Ádám Matolcsy, former governor of the Hungarian National Bank, has reportedly begun shipping his collection of luxury cars to Dubai, where he currently resides.
Matolcsy and other businessmen in his circle are said to be linked to a case in which the Magyar Nemzeti Bank may have lost 600 billion HUF (€1.54bn) in assets.
The matter has reportedly been under investigation for more than six months, though authorities have yet to hold any hearings.
444 has also reported that Mészáros — widely considered one of Orbán's closest business associates — transferred almost all funds from the account of his construction company V-Híd to his private account.
V-Híd, which has won numerous state contracts, said the transfer breached business confidentiality and indicated it intended to take legal action but did not deny that it took place.
Viktor Orbán's son-in-law István Tiborcz, reported to be Hungary's 11th wealthiest person in 2025, is said to have moved to the US with his family in August of that year, reportedly because his wife Ráhel Orbán was studying at university there.
The pattern is not entirely new: ahead of the 2022 elections, when polls showed the opposition with a narrow lead, the couple reportedly relocated to Spain, returning only after Fidesz won its two-thirds majority.
In recent days, the share prices of the companies mentioned in this article have somewhat recovered. OPUS rose 10.5%, 4iG jumped 13%, and Gránit Bank gained 2.7%. Despite these gains, prices remain below the levels seen last autumn.
Disclaimer**:** One of the companies mentioned in this article, 4iG Nyrt., is also a holding of ALPAC Capital, the main owner of Euronews. The two companies operate independently of one another.
This article was temporarily unavailable on our website due to a missing disclosure of ownership interests. Following an investigation and correction of the error, the article was restored online.
