Belgian economist Eric Dor, who was responsible for the calculations, explains that it is necessary to take into account the exemptions on products provided for in the legal text that provides the framework for the application of the new single tariff. It also remains to be seen whether the list of exemptions is the most recent one or that of the EU-US trade agreement.
United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that this Tuesday, 24 February, a new 15% global tariff on products exported to US soil would come into force, but official documents indicate that the figure is actually 10%.
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Trump's countermeasure was presented on Friday, following the decision of the US Supreme Court, which ruled that the increase in customs duties on almost every country in the world announced by Trump on 2 April 2025, dubbed by the leader of the White House as "Liberation Day", was illegal.
A few hours before the new single tariff came into force, the US agency responsible for customs services sent a memo (source in Portuguese) to the country's importers realising that "all countries will be charged a 10% duty for a period of 150 days, unless specifically exempted".
According to US federal government sources quoted by the US press, Trump still intends to charge a 15% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, but no date has been given for the signing of a formal presidential order that would allow customs authorities to carry out this increase.
If Washington does end up raising taxes on imported goods to 15 per cent, Portugal could be one of the European Union (EU) countries hardest hit, Jornal de Negócios reported on Tuesday, based on estimates published by Belgian economist Eric Dor, from the IÉSEG School of Management in France. But is that really the case?
Exemptions could soften the blow of tariffs
Contacted by Euronews, Eric Dor clarifies that the average rate varies according to the different exporting countries, "depending on the composition of the products they export to the US".
The legal text, published by the US administration on Friday with the indication of a single tariff of 10 per cent, provides for exemptions for a number of goods, including pharmaceuticals and electronics. "Countries that mainly export exempt goods to the United States will be penalised with a lower tariff rate than countries that mainly export non-exempt goods, or even goods with a high steel or aluminium content, for which the tariff rate remains at 50 percent," says Dor, in the explanations given to Euronews.
Under the trade agreement reached last July in Scotland between the EU and the US, a base tariff of 15% was set on US imports from the 27-nation bloc, with a 50% rate applied to steel and aluminium, but exemptions were already defined at that time.
As a result, in December, with this agreement in force, notes Eric Dor, "the average US tariff rate on imports from Portugal was just 8.54 per cent", compared to "12.71 per cent on imports from Sweden". For the same reason, "the average customs tariff rate on US imports from large exporters of exempt pharmaceutical products, such as Ireland, Belgium or France, was even lower," adds Dor.
The Belgian economist points out that under the EU-US trade agreement, which has since been frozen by the European Parliament, Portugal has the eighth lowest average tariff rate on exports to the US among EU countries. This is because some products exported by Portugal to the US are exempt from customs duties under the July bilateral agreement, and because Portugal exports few products to US territory that are subject to a 50 per cent tariff, the academic points out.
The list of goods exempt from the global 10 per cent tariff, in force as of Tuesday, differs from the list of exemptions stipulated in the EU-US agreement of July, which brings "great uncertainty", warns Eric Dor. It remains to be seen which list of exemptions will be valid for EU countries, but not only. "It is also unclear whether, for EU countries, the basic 15 per cent tariff on non-exempt goods will be reduced to 10 per cent or whether it will remain at 15 per cent!" notes Eric Dor.
If a single 15% tariff were applied, Portugal would be the eighth EU country with the biggest increase, in the order of 6.5%, Dor confirms, but this would only happen if customs duties covered all goods imported by the US, the economist points out, emphasising that "the legal text released on Friday mentions many exempt goods", which would soften the impact of the tax.
Would a 10 per cent tax have a different impact?
Eric Dor makes it clear that there would be no change if the tariff applied to EU countries was 10 per cent.
"Mechanically, Portugal would still have the eighth biggest difference," the economist explains to Euronews, reiterating that the idea that Portugal would be the eighth most affected country in the EU is based on "wrong or uncertain assumptions" because it doesn't take exemptions into account.
Not only does the legal document published on Friday include "many exemptions", but these exemptions appear to be very different from those provided for in the EU-US agreement, Dor emphasised.
" Clarification is therefore needed before the new average customs duties on imports [from] each EU country can be calculated," he concludes.
