While Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offered territory to Russia’s forces for the initial staging of Moscow's full-scale invasion, Minsk continues to resist Russian pressure to enter the war in Ukraine by claiming that NATO is preparing to attack Belarus.
The Institute for the Study of War says Russian officials maintain Belarusian ground forces might join Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In its latest report, the think tank has focused on Belarus’ support for the Russian invasion and Moscow’s pressure on Minsk to become more involved in its war effort.
But the think tank says Belarus is highly unlikely to invade Ukraine in the foreseeable future. It suggests a Belarusian intervention in Ukraine might serve as a distraction and draw some of Ukraine's ground forces away from the frontline temporarily.
President Alexander Lukashenko offered Belarusian territory to Russian forces for the initial staging of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Minsk offered critical ground lines of communication to the Russian Armed Forces in their failed attack on Kyiv and their subsequent withdrawal from northern Ukraine.
The ISW previously came to the conclusion that Belarus fundamentally supports Russian offensives in Ukraine and provides Russian forces with the land and airspace to attack Ukraine with high-precision weapons.
But will not send Belarusian troops over the border into Ukraine claiming NATO is preparing to attack Belarus.