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Factbox-Germany's election in polls, facts and figures

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By Reuters
Factbox-Germany's election in polls, facts and figures
Factbox-Germany's election in polls, facts and figures   -   Copyright  Thomson Reuters 2021   -  

<div> <p> – Germany’s election produced a narrow win for the Social Democrats over Angela Merkel’s conservatives, projections show, but exit polls conducted for broadcasters on Sunday suggested voters had relatively clear ideas about the outcome they wanted to see.</p> <p><span class="caps">SOCIAL</span> <span class="caps">DEMOCRATS</span> <span class="caps">WITH</span> AN <span class="caps">EDGE</span></p> <p>An Infratest dimap poll for <span class="caps">ARD</span> showed 38% wanted the <span class="caps">SPD</span> to lead the next government, compared to 28% rooting for the conservatives, and more than half wanted the liberal Free Democrats and Greens to be part of it.</p> <p>The <span class="caps">SPD</span>’s Olaf Scholz was preferred Chancellor candidate for 45% of voters, while the conservatives’ Armin Laschet was preferred by 20%.</p> <p>While the Greens’ Annalena Baerbock was the favourite of just 14%, 20% thought her party had “the best answers to the questions of the future”, compared to 18% for the <span class="caps">SPD</span> and 14% for the conservatives.</p> <p><span class="caps">MERKEL</span>’S <span class="caps">SHADOW</span></p> <p>Worryingly for whoever succeeds in building a coalition, 60% of those polled by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen in their exit poll for broadcaster <span class="caps">ZDF</span> thought nobody would succeed in filling the gap left by Angela Merkel when she leaves after 16 years in office.</p> <p><span class="caps">GENERATION</span> <span class="caps">GAP</span> </p> <p>The same poll showed a sharp generational divide, with younger people leaning more towards the Greens and the pro-business liberals, and the over-65s – a large section of one of the world’s oldest societies – leaning towards the <span class="caps">SPD</span> and the conservatives.</p> <p><span class="caps">PARLIAMENT</span> <span class="caps">SWELLS</span></p> <p><span class="caps">ZDF</span> estimates the Bundestag will have 740 members – up from 709 in the last parliament. A side-effect of Germany’s complicated electoral system is that parliament can vary wildly in size. If the Linke, hovering on the 5% threshold, fail to get in, parliament could end up being smaller.</p> <p><span class="caps">CLOSE</span> <span class="caps">BERLIN</span> <span class="caps">RACE</span></p> <p>The Greens failed to live up to their performance at the start of the campaign, when they vied with the conservatives to top polls. But they have given the <span class="caps">SPD</span> a close run in its longtime stronghold, Berlin: polls suggested they are running the <span class="caps">SPD</span> a close second in the city state.</p> <p><span class="caps">FORMER</span> <span class="caps">SPY</span> <span class="caps">CHIEF</span>’S <span class="caps">FAILURE</span></p> <p>In South Thuringia, a controversial hard-right former domestic spying chief appears to have failed to win a seat as a conservative. Polls suggest Hans-Georg Maassen, who was forced to step down as Germany’s chief Nazi hunter, is running behind local hero Frank Ullrich, a former East German ski champion, who is the <span class="caps">SPD</span>’s candidate.</p> <p><span class="caps">HOME</span> <span class="caps">RUNS</span></p> <p>The <span class="caps">SPD</span>’s Scholz and the Greens’ Baerbock were running head to head in an electoral district in Potsdam, a baroque city just outside Berlin. There, Scholz has soundly beaten Baerbock, winning 34% of the votes to her 19%. Both will sit in parliament regardless, but the defeat underscores Baerbock’s failure to capitalize on her early advantage.</p> <p>But Armin Laschet is behind in his own state: in North Rhine-Westphalia, the Netherlands-sized western state of which he is premier, the conservatives are running three percentage points behind the <span class="caps">SPD</span>, according to exit polls.</p> <p>With Merkel stepping down, her own seat, in the windswept Baltic Sea state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, was up for grabs. She had held it since it was created in 1990. This time it looks set to swing to the <span class="caps">SPD</span>.</p> <p/> </div>