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Economic forecast

Economy

Fed’s Warsh hails economic resilience but sees ‘bumpy’ AI road ahead

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Economy

Europe's extreme heatwave could cost EU economies €180 billion

Extreme heat could cost EU economies around €180 billion this year, roughly 1% of GDP and almost exactly the growth the bloc had been expecting for 2026, with France facing the heaviest blow of the big member states.

Economy

The AI boom could trigger the next crash, central banks warn

The vast surge of investment in AI, which has powered global stock markets to record highs, risks ending in a financial bust, the Bank for International Settlements warns, as the build-up’s hidden costs begin to surface in company accounts and consumer prices alike.

Economy

German industrial output rises for the first time this year

An uptick of 0.4% in Germany's April factory output and a rise in exports offer little cause for celebration as new orders collapse, energy prices soar and Europe's largest economy continues to struggle to find solid footing.

Economy

EBRD lowers growth forecast as energy shock hits economies

Economic growth across the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's regions is expected to slow more sharply than previously forecasted this year, largely due to inflation rising to 6.4% due to the Iran war, which has pushed up energy prices.

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Economy

Germany halves GDP forecast from 1% to 0.5% due to Iran war fallout

The German government has officially halved its economic growth forecast for 2026, citing the severe impact of energy shocks stemming from the Iran war. This revision reflects a significant cooling for Europe's largest economy.

Canada

Carney says Canada must cut reliance on US as tariffs hit economy

The Canadian leader stressed that his country cannot hinge its future on hope that the US will return to the partner it formerly was to his country and that active steps must be taken to protect Ottawa from the disruptions caused by the Trump administration.

Business

Hormuz tensions threaten global energy and supply chains, Qatar warns

“The full-fledged impact is coming” and what the world has seen until now in energy costs is "the tip of the iceberg," Qatar’s finance minister says, warning of wider energy and supply shock as Iran tightens control over Hormuz.

Economy

IMF drops Eurozone's economic growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.4%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its growth projection for the eurozone down to 1.1% from 1.4% for 2026 as prospects for the euro area dwindle amid higher inflation and reduced momentum.

Economy

OECD cuts eurozone growth forecast as energy prices surge

The OECD said Thursday it was cutting its eurozone growth outlook and forecasting higher inflation for 2026 after the Middle East war caused energy prices to skyrocket.

Economy

US and China trade strains fail to derail European development outlook

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) anticipates a growth acceleration across its operational regions, driven by supply chain agility providing resilience in the face of trade tensions.

Economy

Four years on: The staggering economic toll of Russia's war in Ukraine

As Ukraine marks four grim years since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, the conflict has morphed into an exhausting war of financial endurance.

Economy

Milano-Cortina 2026: The economic impact of the Winter Olympics

The Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are estimated to generate €5.3bn in total economic value, including €2.3bn in tourism spending.

Economy

#RecessionIndicators: Is there truth behind the TikToks?

Makeup sales, marketing shifts, Labubu dolls. Gen Z has a lot of thoughts on what signals a recession.

Economy

EBRD cuts regional economic outlook as geopolitical tensions linger

Recent US tariffs and worldwide economic tensions are likely to contribute to subdued economic growth in several key European economies and regions.

Economy

How car tariffs and defence spending are shaping growth in Europe

Uncertainty around US trade tariffs is costing the eurozone and the UK economy billions this year and the next, which cannot be entirely offset by increased defence spending in 2025.

EuroVerify

Fact check: Which European economy is set to grow the fastest?

The IMF may have predicted that the UK will be the fastest-growing European G7 member, but it's not projected to be the fastest-growing European economy overall.