Trump insists NATO members should commit to spending at least 5% of GDP on defence, but that would require investment at an unprecedented scale.
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The Trump administration wants to hear this week how NATO's European member countries and Canada plan to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP, new US envoy Matthew Whitaker has said.
Briefing reporters ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Turkey, US Ambassador Matthew Whitaker insisted that "5% is our number. We’re asking our allies to invest in their defence like they mean it."
"Make no mistake, this ministerial is going to be different,” Whitaker said, adding that "5% is not just a number, it is a necessity for our security. The alliance is facing significant threats."
He did elaborate on what those threats were.
In 2023, as Russia's full-scale war on Ukraine entered its second year, NATO leaders agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on national defence budgets.
So far, 22 of the 32 member countries have done so and leaders will set a new goal at a summit in The Hague on 25 June.
Trump, who has cast doubt over whether the US would defend allies that spend too little, insists NATO members should commit to spending at least 5%, but that would require investment at an unprecedented scale.
NATO leaders insisted at a summit last year that "Russia remains the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security," but some countries have grown uneasy about Trump's links to President Vladimir Putin.
Last week, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said that NATO's chief expects the leaders "to aim for 3.5% hard military spending by 2032," and to "1.5% related spending such as infrastructure, cybersecurity and things like that. Also achievable by 2032."
While the two figures do add up to 5%, factoring in infrastructure and cybersecurity would change the basis on which NATO traditionally calculates defence spending.
The seven-year time frame is also short by the alliance's usual standards.
Asked about his demand, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte did not deny it, but he said: "I'm not going to confirm the figures." He said that "there are many rumours floating around" as envoys discuss the new spending goal.
Whitaker appeared to confirm the "defence investment" plan, saying that it "also includes things like mobility, necessary infrastructure, cyber security. It is definitely more than just missiles, tanks and howitzers."
"But at the same time, it's got to be defence-related. It's not a grab bag for everything that you could possibly imagine," Whitaker added.
It remains difficult to see how many allies might reach even 3.5% of GDP on defence investment.
NATO's most recent estimates show that 22 allies would reach the 2% goal last year, compared to a previous forecast of 23.
Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Italy, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain would not, although Spain does expect to reach the 2% goal in 2025, a year too late.
Even the United States was estimated to have spent 3.19% of GDP in 2024, down from 3.68% a decade ago, when all members vowed to increase spending after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
It's the only ally whose spending has dropped.
Whitaker also said that any European investments in "defence industry capabilities must also include the fair treatment for American defence technology firms."
He said that excluding the US and others "would undermine NATO interoperability, slow Europe's rearming, raise costs and stifle innovation."
Last month, the European Union announced a new drive to break its security dependency on the United States, with a focus on buying more defence equipment in Europe.