These European countries could lose more than 30 days of comfortable weather a year by 2100

A man rests during a heatwave in Madrid, Spain last year.
A man rests during a heatwave in Madrid, Spain last year. Copyright AP Photo/Manu Fernandez
Copyright AP Photo/Manu Fernandez
By Rosie Frost
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Researchers at MIT have developed an innovative new way to measure real-life impact of global warming.


For most people, deciphering the impact of rising temperatures on their everyday lives isn’t easy. Global warming of 1.5C or 2C on average is hard to imagine.

To try and solve this problem, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have come up with an innovative new way to measure this real-life change and predict its long-term effects.

Using data from 50 different climate models, they charted how the number of ‘outdoor days’ in various destinations around the world will go up or down by 2100.

These ‘outdoor days’ refer to periods of 24 hours when temperatures are pleasant enough for most people to do outdoor activities whether work or leisure. Those are days when it isn’t too hot or too cold, which the scientists consider to roughly be between 10C and 25C, and no extreme weather events occur.

An online tool developed by researchers at MIT also allows people to set their own temperature range when checking data from their country based on what they think constitutes comfortable weather.

The MIT study found tropical destinations will see the biggest changes in outdoor days. The Dominican Republic will take the biggest hit losing 124 days of comfortable weather a year by the end of the century. Mexico, India, Thailand and Egypt will lose half their outdoor days.

Researchers also point out a divide between the Global North, which will gain more days of comfortable weather, and the Global South, which will lose more despite having emitted fewer greenhouse gases. The differences in places like Bangladesh or Sudan are striking, they say.

Where in Europe will lose the most ‘outdoor days’ by 2100?

There’s also a north-south split in Europe when it comes to outdoor days. In the north there will be more days with comfortable weather as winters warm, in the south extreme heat during summer months will cause the number of outdoor days to drop.

The Balkans is likely to be one of the most heavily impacted regions in Europe, according to the MIT data. Albania will lose 30 days, Serbia 26 days, Croatia 22 days, North Macedonia 21 days, Bulgaria 17 days, Kosovo 19 days, and Romania 12 days.

A little further south, Greece could lose 37 outdoor days a year by 2100 due to extreme heat between May and September, the MIT study says.

The Iberian Peninsula will also see changes with Portugal experiencing 33 fewer outdoor days and Spain 13.

Researchers say the disparity in Europe is already being felt and people are choosing where to travel based on increasingly extreme heat in previously popular destinations.

Though countries in northern Europe are likely to gain outdoor days due to climate change, it isn’t all good news either.

France, Germany and Austria will gain between 18 and 52 days of comfortable weather by 2100 - largely due to warmer winters. This could be a fatal blow for Europe’s already struggling ski industry.

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