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Brazil heads to a runoff presidential vote after Bolsonaro and Lula fail to acquire outright majority needed

A supporter of opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro poses for a picture as she waits for election results in Rio de Janeiro, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026
A supporter of opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro poses for a picture as she waits for election results in Rio de Janeiro, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 -  Copyright  AP Photo
Copyright AP Photo
By Malek Fouda
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Flávio Bolsonaro, Brazilian senator, presidential hopeful and son to embattled former leader Jair, says he is “very happy” to have led in the first round and heading into the runoff, with incumbent Lula expressing disappointment over “unexpected” results.

Flávio Bolsonaro, a Brazilian Senator and ally of US President Donald Trump, and Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face off in a runoff on the 25th of October 5 for the top job of Latin America’s powerhouse economy after neither won a majority in Sunday's presidential vote.

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The country’s electoral court in the capital Brasilia said neither the 80-year-old incumbent, seeking his fourth non-consecutive term, nor the 45-year-old son to embattled former President Jair Bolsonaro garnered the majority vote needed for an outright win.

The court had Bolsonaro with just over 56 million votes while Brazilian political veteran Lula sat at around 53.7 million. The data was announced after local election officials reported 99.8% of the votes counted for the country’s next presidential term, set to begin 5 January.

The winner will be in charge of South America’s biggest economy and a population of 214 million. A win for Bolsonaro would increase US influence in the country, while a win for Lula would likely continue to distance Brasilia from Washington and instead deepen its ties with China.

Flávio Bolsonaro addressed the press and a small group of supporters, including some wearing green and yellow Brazil jerseys and one woman wrapped in the Israeli flag, outside his Brasilia house.

Opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro arrives to vote during general elections in Rio de Janeiro, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026
Opposition presidential candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro arrives to vote during general elections in Rio de Janeiro, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 Lucas Landau/Copyright 2026 The AP. All rights reserved

“Brazil wants change, that’s the reading of what happened today,” Bolsonaro said. “It’s the end of the Workers’ Party era,” he added, referencing Lula's party.

Lula, seeking to be encouraging ahead of an uphill battle to beat Bolsonaro in the upcoming runoff, said the result was “unexpected” as he had thought he could win in the first round.

“Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” said Lula. “I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan.”

Both Lula and Bolsonaro will have three weeks to reach moderate voters who did not support them in the first round.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection, speaks after voting during general elections in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection, speaks after voting during general elections in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 Ettore Chiereguini/Copyright 2026 The AP. All rights reserved

Augusto Cury, a writer who finished in third place with 3.4 million votes, said he would not endorse either in the runoff. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two candidates who garnered about 5.3 million votes combined on Sunday, have previously said the same.

In the campaign ahead, Lula is expected to try to capitalise on the popularity of his social policies and his rival’s many legal woes.

While the once widely popular Lula saw his approval ratings plummet during his third term, standing up to the US gave him a boost. He still enjoys a strong base of supporters who credit his social policies for improving millions of Brazilians’ lives.

Supporters of President Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection, kiss as they react to partial presidential election results in Rio de Janeiro, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026
Supporters of President Lula da Silva, who is running for reelection, kiss as they react to partial presidential election results in Rio de Janeiro, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026 Silvia Izquierdo/Copyright 2026 The AP. All rights reserved

But the incumbent faces a tough battle because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same Supreme Court justice who led the investigation into his rival Jair Bolsonaro, and subjected him to house arrest following his conviction of plotting a coup to subvert democracy after the last presidential election.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes is accused of having been in contact with disgraced banker and head of the Banco Master financial institution, Daniel Vorcaro, who had messaged him several times seeking legal advice.

Both candidates face image problems; Roughly half of Brazil’s population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family, and the other half disapprove of Lula’s Workers' Party, according to multiple polls.

FILE - Side-by-side photos showing Flavio Bolsonaro, left, in Sao Paulo, on Sept. 29, 2026 and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Rio de Janeiro, on Sept. 23, 2026
FILE - Side-by-side photos showing Flavio Bolsonaro, left, in Sao Paulo, on Sept. 29, 2026 and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Rio de Janeiro, on Sept. 23, 2026 AP Photo//AP Photo/

Four years ago, Lula beat then incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes.

While Sunday was a successful night for Bolsonaro, nothing is won yet. Both will need to tap into to the other candidates’ base to launch a successful presidential bid, which may force them to concede on certain policy goals to receive an endorsement.

The three other main candidates – Cury, Santos and Caiado – hold roughly 8.73 million or 7.5% of eligible votes between them.

Additional sources • AP

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