The US may push Kyiv to accept limited autonomy for Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine and quash the country's long-held desire to join NATO.
President Joe Biden spoke to Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday two days after he signalled that the U.S. would play a bigger role in negotiating an end to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
Biden spoke to Zelenskyy two days after a video conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which Putin outlined his concerns over Ukraine's bid to join NATO and Biden suggested that Washington could join Europe in helping to end the territorial dispute between the two nations.
Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and backs separatist rebels in the Donbas region that have carved out semi-autonomous territories around the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Bordering Russia, both territories are home to Ukraine's Russian-speaking minority.
In recent weeks, U.S. intelligence has reported a large troop build-up on Russia's border with Ukraine, sparking fears that Moscow could be poised to annex the territories, as in Crimea.
While Biden repeated his promise to impose further sanctions on Moscow if it launched any military action against Ukraine during the call, Biden administration officials have said that the president may ask Kyiv to accept greater autonomy for separatists in eastern Ukraine.
More autonomy could formally give residents of that region more authority over some local issues. The administration officials made no mention of ceding any territory.
It echoes the "special status" suggested for the Donbas in an EU-brokered peace deal in 2015 which has never been implemented and is controversial in Ukraine and in the U.S., where it is seen as a major concession to Moscow and a violation of Ukrainian territorial sovereignty.
In a statement after the call with Biden, Ukraine said Zelenskyy was offering “clear proposals to unblock the peace process and is ready to discuss them in various formats.”
Biden also will have to finesse Ukraine's desire to join NATO. The U.S. and NATO reject Putin's demands that they guarantee Ukraine won't be admitted to the Western military alliance.
But senior State Department officials have told Ukraine that NATO membership is unlikely to be approved in the next decade, according to a person familiar with those private talks who spoke on condition of anonymity.
For Biden, the challenge will be encouraging Kyiv to accept some of the facts on the ground in eastern Ukraine, without appearing to cave to Putin — a perception that could embolden the Russian leader and unleash a fresh line of condemnations by Republicans as Biden’s popularity is already in decline.
Ukraine may be asked "can you make some step forward on these areas,” said Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. That could include measures such as allowing the Russia-allied Donbas region to control its own health care, police, and schools, he said.
“But I don’t see Washington pushing the Ukrainians to take steps that would compromise their sovereignty or the ability of the national government when it came to making decisions," Pifer said.
Ukraine, a former Soviet republic with deep cultural and historic ties to Russia, has in recent years sought closer integration with the West and membership in NATO. The alliance has held out the promise of membership but it has declined to set a timeline. Even before the current crisis, Ukraine was a long way from joining.
The call between Biden and Putin took place as tensions grew over the threat of Russian forces again rolling into Ukraine. Putin denies any such intention and charges that it is NATO strengthening its hold in former Soviet satellites and republics that is threatening Russia.
U.S. intelligence reports last week said Russia had moved 70,000 troops to Ukraine’s borders as it builds toward a possible invasion early next year.
After speaking with Zelenskyy, Biden briefed leaders of nine NATO members in Eastern Europe, including three former Soviet republics. It's part of weeks of coordination with NATO allies on the response to the Russian military buildup on Ukraine's border.
Before and after his call with Putin, Biden spoke with the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Italy. France and Germany took the lead in brokering the 2015 peace deal between Ukraine and the Russia-backed rebels, in what's known as the Normandy format.
“We hope by Friday we’re gonna be able to say, announce to you, we’re having meetings at a higher level,” Biden said Wednesday. “Not just with us, but with at least four of our major NATO allies, and Russia."
The meetings would address "the future of Russia’s concern relative to NATO writ large, and whether or not we could work out any accommodations as it relates to bringing down the temperature" in Ukraine's east," Biden said.
Speaking at a news conference in Paris on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron defended French-German diplomatic efforts over the past several years to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, but said he welcomed Biden's outreach to his European allies on the matter.
“Our aim – all of us Europeans and our American partners -- is first to be at Ukraine’s side to ensure its security ... and to start a demanding dialogue with Russia," Macron said.
Asked about any need for Ukrainian compromises, Sullivan told reporters Tuesday that “Ukrainians have come forward with constructive ideas for how to move the diplomacy forward. We're encouraging that."
Under the 2015 deal, Ukraine agreed to change its constitution to accommodate the “peculiarities” of the two Donbas separatist republics and to legalize their “special status.” Some analysts said the deal's vagueness, and some conflicting requirements, make its provisions effectively unworkable.
Ukraine is willing to engage in talks on defining “special status,” including possible changes that account for the cultural and linguistic differences of its eastern Donbas region, which has a higher proportion of native Russian speakers, the person familiar with the private talks between Ukraine and the United States said.
But Ukraine would reject any change that gives the region virtual veto power over national policy, the person said.