- Fresh election “unlikely” to end political deadlock
- More likely to abstain
- “Union of the left could prove uncomfortable for the PSOE
The pain in Spain
Research suggests a fresh election due to be held in Spain on June 26 is unlikely to break the political stalemate to form a government.
A previous vote in December produced the most fragmented result in decades.
- Published by El Pais newspaper
- 1,200 polled between April 26-28
- People’s Party (PP) – 29% of votes (up from 28.7% in December)
- Socialists (PSOE) – 20.3% (down from 22)
- Podemos – 18.1% (down from 20.7)
- Ciudadanos – 16.9 (up from 13.9)
Observers say the tiny variations in percentages from December are unlikely to translate into major changes in seats.
At least three parties are needed to obtain a majority.
Four months of political bickering and failure to form a government are likely to boost abstention rates.
Around 30% say they plan to abstain, compared to 26.8% in December.
The situation could also play in favour of the two traditionally-dominant parties, the PP and the PSOE.
Podemos and Ciudadanos are still seen as lacking a strong enough structure to mobilise voters in many rural areas.
A union on the Left?
It was announced last week that Podemos is considering running on a joint platform with the far-left party, Izquierda Unida.
A combination of the two would capture 22.3% of the vote, overtaking the PSOE as Spain’s main left-wing party.
Experts say this could put the Socialists in the uneasy position of having to choose between being the junior coalition partner in a left-wing government or going into a grand coalition with the centre-right PP.