Cancer cases expected to grow by more than 20% in Europe by 2045 - WHO agency

T cell (orange) interacting with cancer cell (blue)
T cell (orange) interacting with cancer cell (blue) Copyright Graphic: Business Wire via AP Photo
Copyright Graphic: Business Wire via AP Photo
By Lauren Chadwick
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A new report ahead of World Cancer Day highlights the growing burden of cancer globally.

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The number of new cancer cases in Europe is estimated to grow by 22.5 per cent over the next two decades, according to new estimates from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

That’s as the number of cancer diagnoses grows 55 per cent globally between 2022 and 2045, from roughly 19.9 million cancer cases in 2022 to 30.9 million cases in 2045.

The new estimates were released ahead of World Cancer Day on February 4 and highlight the "growing burden" of cancer and a need to address cancer inequities, according to IARC, the cancer agency of the World Health Organization (WHO).

Among the factors that are contributing to the rise include ageing populations, tobacco, alcohol, and obesity as well as air pollution, the agency said.

Currently, about one in five people develop cancer in their lifetime, while around one in nine men and one in 12 women die from it.

As cancer incidence increases, cancer mortality will also increase from an estimated 9.7 million people in 2022 to 16.6 million people globally in 2045.

The number of deaths due to cancer in Europe could rise by 32 per cent, according to the new analysis.

Common cancers in Europe and disparities in treatment

In Europe, the most common type of cancer is breast cancer, followed by prostate and colorectum cancers, according to the 2022 estimates from the IARC, WHO’s cancer agency.

The most common causes of cancer death in the EU are lung, colorectal, and breast cancer, according to EU figures.

"At a time when health financing is coming under increasing pressure across Europe, we risk undoing decades of progress to improve the health and wellbeing of millions of people," Dr Hans Kluge, WHO's regional director for Europe, said in a statement.

"As we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, my message to everyone - politicians and citizens alike - is that we need more, not less, health".

A new report from the Union for International Cancer Control (UICC), also released this week, found that there are stark inequalities in Europe in terms of access to cancer care.

People with low socioeconomic status in Sweden, for instance, are at a higher risk of dying from cancer compared to those who are more privileged, the UICC said.

In Portugal, around 30 per cent of the most common causes of cancer are linked to tobacco consumption.

“Despite the progress that has been made in the early detection of cancers and the treatment and care of cancer patients, significant disparities in cancer treatment outcomes exist not only between high and low-income regions of the world but also within countries,” according to Cary Adams, head of the UICC.

“Where someone lives should not determine whether they live. Tools exist to enable governments to prioritise cancer care, and to ensure that everyone has access to affordable, quality services. This is not just a resource issue but a matter of political will”.

Among the measures the UICC has called for include increases in funding for cancer disparities, incorporating cancer services into national health benefits, and implementing common cancer screening programmes.

Differences between high and low-income countries

The new estimates from the IARC’s Global Cancer Observatory found large inequities between more developed countries and underdeveloped nations.

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In countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI), an indicator based on education, life expectancy, and income, one in 12 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer while one in 71 women will die of it.

But in countries with a low HDI, just one in 27 women is diagnosed with breast cancer but one in 48 women die from it.

"Women in lower HDI countries are 50 per cent less likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer than women in high HDI countries, yet they are at a much higher risk of dying of the disease due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment," said Isabelle Soerjomataram, the IARC’s deputy head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch.

Overall, the estimated number of new cancer cases in low HDI countries will increase by 107 per cent between 2022 and 2045, while the estimated number of cancer cases in high HDI countries will increase by 36 per cent.

"Diagnosis, treatment and survival should not depend on where you are born or how much income you earn. Beating cancer has to be a whole-of-society endeavour, bringing together all parts of the health system across the entire care pathway," added Kluge.

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A WHO survey of 115 countries showed, meanwhile, that a majority of countries do not adequately finance cancer services as part of health coverage, with experts calling for major investment to address differences between countries.

The IARC has previously highlighted that estimates should be interpreted with "caution" due to the limitations of cancer data worldwide, "particularly in low and middle-income countries".

This article has been updated with a statement from WHO's regional office in Europe.

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