With less than a fortnight to go before the European Commission floats a potentially radical new greenhouse gas reduction target, an alliance of business leaders, local governments and climate campaigners has called on the EU to follow the advice of its own scientists.
ADVERTISEMENTBusinesses, climate campaigners and local governments have urged the European Commission to propose greenhouse gas output be slashed to a tenth of 1990 levels, while a leaked impact assessment suggests this is just one scenario the EU executive is considering as it plans an interim target on the way to net-zero by mid-century.
Under the European Climate Law adopted in 2021, the EU is committed to becoming climate neutral by 2050, meaning any remaining CO2 emissions are balanced by removals, either by natural carbon sinks or through technological fixes. The target for 2030 is 55%, and the Commission is due to suggest next month a suitable interim goal for 2040.
A ‘high ambition coalition’ wrote today (25 January) to President Ursula von der Leyen and other senior officials, urging a cut of at least 90%, which the EU’s own independent scientific advisory board has identified as the bare minimum needed to stay on track for the net-zero target. The group comprises climate campaigners, businesses in the clean tech sector, and local government organisations whose members include the cities of Paris, Berlin and Warsaw.
“Ahead of the European Parliament elections, it is vital to show that the socially just transition towards climate neutrality is indispensable to ensure long-term resilience, peace and political stability,” runs the letter, coordinated by the NGO umbrella group Climate Action Network Europe.
“Swiftly phasing out all fossil fuels and investing in the transformation of the ways we produce and consume will spur innovation towards a clean, circular and competitive industry that can provide safe and decent work, driving a raise in ambition of global standards,” it continues, noting that a “robust vision” for climate action to 2040 would “provide the necessary framework for businesses and financial markets to mobilise the needed investments”.
The Corporate Leaders Group Europe, whose members include big names like Amazon, IKEA and Spanish energy firm Iberdrola, also lent its name to the appeal. “The EU must now set a robust and feasible climate target for 2040 that provides long term certainty and encourages businesses to decarbonise in a way that benefits the economy and society,” director Ursula Woodburn said.
Climate Action Network Europe director Chiara Martinelli said: “The diversity, size and collective expertise of the coalition calling for a science-based target is telling.”
As the letter was being sent, a leaked draft of an impact assessment to be published on 6 February alongside the Commission’s communication on a 2040 target was also circulating in Brussels. Seen by Euronews, it shows the executive has discarded any 2040 target below 75% as amounting to backsliding. Likewise, anything over 95% is excluded as unfeasible.
Instead the Commission has modelled three scenarios: a cut of up to 80%, between 85-90%, and 90-95%. A target of 90%, as demanded by the high ambition coalition, would imply the share of renewable energy in the EU mix rising to 73% by 2040. At the same time, overall energy consumption would have to fall 34% compared to 2015, and fossil fuel use would fall by some 70% from current levels to the equivalent of 311 million tonnes of oil.
Similarly to a recently leaked draft of an ‘industrial carbon management plan’ to be presented alongside the 2040 communication, the draft impact assessment reflects the increasing weight the EU executive is placing on carbon capture technology to meet its climate action objectives.
In the middle of the three scenarios, the Commission assumes that by the end of the next decade, 222 million tonnes of CO2 will be routinely captured at source from industrial plants and power stations, with the bulk of it pumped into permanent storage underground. The EU has next to no capacity for doing this at present, but the Net Zero Industry Act currently under negation proposes would require oil and gas firms to provide 50 MT of injection capacity by 2030.
