Oscars 2024 Predictions: Who will win, who should win, and will ‘Oppenheimer’ sweep the board?

Oscars 2024 Predictions: Who will win, who should win, and will ‘Oppenheimer’ sweep the board? - Copyright Universal Pictures - Searchlight Pictures - Focus Features - Netflix

By David Mouriquand

Published on 08/03/2024 - 16:36•Updated 16:37

Comments

Who will take home the biggest awards of the night – and who is more deserving? And are we about to be consumed by Oppenheimer’s all-powerful blast radius?

The 2024 Oscars are on Sunday, and after some extensive coverage of this year’s nominees, it’s finally time to dust off the crystal ball and give you our predictions for this year’s 96th edition.

It does seem as if it’s gearing up to be a huge sweep for Oppenheimer, which leads the way with 13 nominations and is the frontrunner in several categories, including Best Picture. So, we may be in for a very predictable show.

Still, despite some awards feeling like a foregone conclusion, let’s hope that the ceremony yields some surprises, as a great number of films nominated this year are deserving of their very own Golden Baldie. We’re hoping the Oscar gods are feeling fickle...

Who will take home the biggest awards of the night – and who is more deserving? We’re giving you our Will Wins (our predicted champions) and our Should Wins (the ones we’d ideally like to see emerge victorious).

Let’s see how many we get right, and if we’ll all be consumed by Oppenheimer ’s all-powerful blast radius, and if Nolan’s portmanteau buddy Barbie will manage to nab a couple of awards – probably at the detriment of Poor Things.

Here are our Oscar predictions in all categories:

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

While it previously seemed like this year’s top prize would be a two-way race between Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, Christopher Nolan’s film has emerged as the clear frontrunner. His dense and haunting biopic seems like the obvious choice – even if we wouldn’t be mad if Past Lives or The Zone of Interest created an upset on the night. There’s also The Holdovers, which has been gaining some last-minute momentum as the warmer, feel-good option. That said, it feels like it’s Nolan's year, and Oppenheimer looks set to dominate the whole evening. Cue: rabid Nolan fanboys tiresomely trumpeting their maestro’s triumph for weeks to come. To be fair, it is overdue, as the director has steadily been working his way up to this one. Still, it all seems a bit telegraphed at this point.

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:

Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

It’s a very strong year when it comes to the directing nominees, but Christopher Nolan seems to have this one on lockdown too. It’s deserved, as Oppenheimer is a narrative and technical masterstroke. We don’t expect any plot twists here: even if Martin Scorsese could be seen as an outside threat, and we’re huge fans of Lanthimos’ Poor Things and Glazer’s meticulous work on The Zone of Interest, it’s going to be Nolan’s night.

Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

BEST ACTOR

Nominees:

Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Colman Domingo - Rustin
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

The Best Actor competition feels like it could go either one of two ways. In one corner, you have Cillian Murphy, with what is the meatiest big screen role of his career. In the other corner stands Paul Giamatti, who has long been an unassuming critical darling and whose turn in The Holdovers is note-perfect. When push comes to shove, we think it’s Murphy and his intense turn in Oppenheimer who’ll win. He’s previously taken home the acting awards at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs and SAGs, so it stands to reason that he’ll emerge victorious in this very impressive category. Shout out to the spectacular work of Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. He’s been bizarrely vilified online throughout the awards season, for the apparent crime of wanting to win prizes and caring too much. So sue him – Maestro is a brilliantly handled biopic and we’re still not over the fact that Rami Malek beat him to the prize in 2019 for the godawful Bohemian Rhapsody, when Cooper should have taken it home for A Star Is Born. Your time will come, Bradley. Your time will come.

Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees:

Annette Bening - Nyad
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Emma Stone - Poor Things

This is the nail-biter of the evening, and like Best Actor, it really comes down to two nominees: Emma Stone, who won the Golden Globe (Comedy), the Critics Choice Award and BAFTA for Poor Things, and Lily Gladstone, who won the Globe (Drama) and the SAG Award for Killers of the Flower Moon. Things seemed to be going in Stone’s favour, but when Gladstone was nominated in Best Actress as opposed to Best Supporting Actress, things changed. She already makes history as the first Native American to be nominated for Best Actress, and she is undeniably the best thing about Scorsese’s bladder-punishing American epic. However, Stone’s performance is the most daring and inventive of the two. And then there’s Sandra Hüller, who represents all of Europe’s hopes on Sunday, as well as Annette Bening, who has now been nominated five times and never won. Hollywood loves to award glorified lifetime awards, so don’t rule her out completely. Still, this very close race will probably go in Gladstone’s favour, also because it’s her first nom and Stone already has three nominations and one win. She may deserve the win, but the revamped Academy voters will choose to honour new blood.

Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Who Should Win: Emma Stone - Poor Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees:

Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

While there could be some surprises in the lead acting categories, the supporting ones this year are all but a done deal. For the boys, Robert Downey Jr. has taken pole position during the entirety of this year’s awards season for his role as Oppenheimer's political rival Lewis Strauss. It’s a terrific performance, and considering the Hollywood optics for a moment, his win makes sense. His is a against-all-odds, phoenix from the flames story, after having been blacklisted for his post- Chaplin bad boy antics, only to reemerge as Marvel’s poster boy and box office dependable leading man. The Academy loves a good redemption arc, and this would be the grand finale. Shout out to Mark Ruffalo though, who seemed to have an absolute blast on the set of Poor Things, and delivered a hilarious performance which on any other year would have seen him run away with the trophy.

Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees:

Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
America Ferrara - Barbie
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Like Downey Jr., this one is a fait accompli. Da'Vine Joy Randolph's role as a mourning chef in Alexander Payne's The Holdovers has swept pretty much every award leading up to the Oscars. This is the easiest one to get right, and you can bet she’ll (deservedly) add another trophy to her ever-growing collection on Sunday.

Who Will Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Who Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

Justine Triet and Arthur Harari - Anatomy of a Fall
David Hemingson - The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer - Maestro
Samy Burch - May December
Celine Song - Past Lives

It’s a very strong year, with three female writers in the mix, which is a record for the category. While all worthy, we’re betting that Anatomy of a Fall will win its only Oscar in this category - since last year’s Palme d’Or winner was rather stupidly not selected as France’s international entry. Had it been picked, it would have been the frontrunner in that selection. As it stands, Best Original Screenplay seems like its best shot at an Oscar. If it does win, it’ll be the first French screenplay to win since Claude Lelouch’s A Man and A Woman in 1966. Elsewhere, the much-loved The Holdovers, both touching and very funny, seems like Anatomy ’s main rival, and it’s a shame that May December will probably go home empty-handed. It deserved better. Still, we’re banking that Justine Triet and Arthur Harari's screenplay will win, if only for the beautifully written, gut-punch argument scenes.

Who Will Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari - Anatomy of a Fall

Who Should Win: Samy Burch - May December

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

Cord Jefferson - American Fiction
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach - Barbie
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Tony McNamara - Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

This could be the category where Oppenheimer doesn’t win... Having explored the literary nominees this year, this Oscar could go to any of the other screenwriters... Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction screenplay won at the Critics Choice, Indie Spirits and BAFTAs, and it would be a solid choice. So would Tony McNamara’s audacious take on Alasdair Gray’s novel “Poor Things” and Jonathan Glazer's adaptation of Martin Amis’ "The Zone of Interest", which is arguably the most accomplished book-to-screen treatment this year. Then there’s Barbie, which was placed in the Adapted Screenplay category, purely because the film is based on existing characters and intellectual property. Considering the film was snubbed in the Best Director and Best Actress categories, it could emerge as the wild card. Greta Gerwig’s film only stands to get two or three awards (Production Design maybe, Costume Design probably, Best Song definitely); voters may decide to give it some love here and play make up with Barbie fans. However, if we’re sticking to statistics, the Best Picture winner usually gets a writing award. It’s been the case four of the last five years, so we’re playing the odds and saying it will go to Oppenheimer.

Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Nominees:

Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

The French must be kicking themselves, as France’s submission of Taste of Things over Anatomy of a Fall for this category was a mistake. Justine Triet’s Palme d’Or winner has gone the distance throughout awards season, and would have run away with this Oscar. As it stands, voters should give it to the UK’s The Zone of Interest. Spare a thought for Wim Wenders' superb Perfect Days though, the great filmmaker’s best fiction film in decades.

Who Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Nominees:

Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

This is a strong bunch to choose from. Mstyslav Chernov's 20 Days In Mariupol is a timely and powerful film that stands as the favourite here. And when you take into consideration the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the fact that voters went for an anti-Putin film last year with Navalny (which due to his death should be at the forefront of many minds), the Academy probably won’t pass on the opportunity to have another bash at Russia’s horrific transgressions. We’re huge fans of Four Daughters here, so should voters go elsewhere with their ballots, we’re hoping it’s in Kaouther Ben Hania ’s camp.

Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Who Should Win: Four Daughters

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Miyazaki or Spidey? That’s what it boils down to for Best Animated Feature. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will have the edge in the US, despite how heartening it would be to see the 83-year-old Japanese legend Hayao Miyazaki win his second competitive Oscar, after his Honorary Academy Award in 2014. Plus, The Boy and the Heron is apparently his swansong, and Spirited Away is the only Studio Ghibli film to win this award... Which is all kinds of wrong. Still, it can’t be denied that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is vibrant, inventive stuff, and seems like the safe bet here. Big love to Robot Dreams though, which would be our ideal pick.

Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Who Should Win: Robot Dreams

As for the rest, if you’ve made it this far in the article, we’re opting for straightforward one-liners. For more of our thoughts on each category, join us on Sunday evening / Monday morning for our live coverage of the ceremony.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Should Win: Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)

Best Film Editing

Will Win: Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Shoonmaker)

Best Production Design

Will Win: Barbie (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
Should Win: Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price, Zsuzsa Mihalek)

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould)
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima)

Best Sound

Will Win: Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell, and Gary A. Rizzo)
Should Win: The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn, Tarn Willers)

Best Original Score

Will Win: Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Should Win: Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)

Best Original Song

Will Win: Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell - "What Was I Made For?" (Barbie)
Should Win: Scott George - "Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Best Costume Design