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EBRD trims growth forecast for 2020; global trade and autos pose risk

EBRD trims growth forecast for 2020; global trade and autos pose risk
FILE PHOTO: The headquarter of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is seen in London, Britain, November 22, Britain 2016. REUTERS/Stefan Wermuth -
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Stefan Wermuth(Reuters)
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LONDON (Reuters) – The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development cut its forecast for growth in the region it covers, citing slower growth in global trade, with emerging Europe at risk from a slowdown in Germany and the auto industry.

The EBRD, which tracks trends in 37 countries across three continents, said in its latest economic outlook, released on Wednesday, that it expected average growth in 2020 of 2.9%, down from the 2.6% it forecast in May. It confirmed a growth rate of 2.4% in 2019.

“Economies in the EBRD regions face key risks from a possible further slowdown in the eurozone, a deeper-than- expected slowdown in China and any protracted weakness in the global automotive sector,” said Beata Javorcik, EBRD’s chief economist.

“Longer-term growth will depend to a large extent on how developments in automation affect the incentives for where production is located.”

The EBRD also said it now expected Turkey’s economy to contract by 0.2% in 2019, less than it had previously forecast, and then grow 2.5% in 2020. Russia saw its growth cut to 1.1% this year and 1.7% next year.

Graphic: EBRD November forecast – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/8285/8216/EBRDNovember2019forecasts.png

(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, editing by Larry King)

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