WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Trade tensions are weighing on growth across the world, but the International Monetary Fund is “far” from forecasting a global recession, an IMF official told Reuters on Friday, as the fund prepares to release a new economic outlook next month.
The IMF on Thursday said tariffs imposed or threatened by the United States and China could shave 0.8% off global economic output in 2020 and trigger losses in future years.
“The trade tensions are weighing on growth. But we really don’t see recession in the current baseline. I think we’re far from that,” said the IMF official, who is familiar with the preparation of the outlook.
“While manufacturing activity has been weak, we also see resilience in the services sector and consumer confidence is holding up. The question is how long that resilience can last, and we are monitoring carefully all indicators,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly.
The fund issues an economic outlook twice a year to coincide with its spring and fall meetings, forecasting global gross domestic product for the current year and the following year.
(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)