LONDON (Reuters) – Europe’s biggest asset manager Amundi reckons there is a 40 percent chance of a “prolonged extension” to the scheduled Brexit date of March 29, upping its previous forecast of 30 percent
“Given the developments of the last few days, an extension is becoming more likely (several months extension with prolonged uncertainty, not the technical extension that would very probably come with a deal scenario),” Amundi said in an email received late on Tuesday.
The fund assigns a 20 percent probability to a no-deal outcome, unchanged from its end-January forecast. It had said at the time it saw a 30 percent chance the Brexit deadline would be extended by several months.
Lawmakers are to vote on March 12 on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal but failure to approve that will allow them to vote on March 14 to extend the deadline.
(Reporting by Sujata Rao; Editing by Tommy Wilkes)