SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The United States’ economic outperformance will wane, the dollar will probably weaken and growth next year can be expected from emerging markets, UBS Asset Management said on Monday, the latest money manager to turn bullish on the sector.
The $858 billion dollar manager pointed to opportunities in equities, currencies and especially Asian credit markets at an outlook presentation to investors and the press in Singapore.
It follows upgrades on the outlook for emerging markets, loosely defined as more recently industrialised nations – including China, much of Southeast Asia and Latin America – from J.P Morgan Asset Management and Morgan Stanley last month.
“As we look towards 2020, we’re looking towards ex-U.S. equities,” said Evan Brown, head of multi-asset strategy at UBS Asset Management.
He called out credit, especially Chinese and Asian bonds as a “prize pot” opportunity away from expensive developed markets’ debt and said the U.S. dollar was overvalued and likely to fall.
“You’re going to see an improvement in ex-U.S. growth and the U.S. economy still doing OK, but not outperforming,” he said.
Brown declined to specify the manager’s emerging markets equity exposure in detail, but said: “We would allocate a few percentage points more relative to the U.S.,” and that it was reasonable to expect low double-digit returns next year.
World shares are not far from all-time highs as easy monetary policy and confidence the United States and China can strike a deal ending their trade war has investors optimistic.
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)