LONDON (Reuters) – Wealth manager DWS said on Friday it had trimmed the probability of a no-deal Brexit on Halloween by 5 percentage points to 15%, and added it looked more likely that Brexit may not happen at all.
The probability of “No Brexit” now stood at 45%, up from 40% in August, DWS told clients, citing the increase likelihood of a second referendum.
“In such a case – especially if the alternative is a hard version of the (Prime Minister Boris) Johnson deal – we would expect “Vote Leave” to start with a severe disadvantage compared to “Remain”,” DWS analysts wrote.
“Other paths towards “No Brexit” include snap elections and/or revoking Article 50 if, at some point, that is the only way to stop “No Deal”,” DWS added.
The UK was originally scheduled to leave the European Union on Oct 31.
(Reporting by Karin Strohecker; editing by Sujata Rao)