DUBLIN (Reuters) – Irish employment would be 3.4 percent lower if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal than it would be if its neighbour remained in the bloc, a study showed on Tuesday, presenting a more severe outcome than previous research.
Ireland’s 2.3-million-strong workforce would create 80,000 fewer jobs over the next 10 years through a combination of job cuts and roles that would otherwise have been created if Britain leaves without any orderly transition for trade, the government-commissioned report said.
Ireland’s Finance Ministry had forecast 50,000 fewer jobs in a similar scenario.
Due to the two country’s close trading links, the Economic and Social Research Institute’s (ESRI) study estimated that even if Britain makes an orderly agreed exit from the EU, employment would still be 1.8 percent lower than if trade remained as it is now, the equivalent of 45,000 jobs.
All forecasts published to date suggest that Ireland’s fast growing economy – which has outstripped every other EU country for each of the past five years – will still grow if Britain leaves with or without a deal, but at a slower pace.
The ESRI, which is an independent think-tank partly funded by the finance department, said gross domestic product would be 2.6 percentage point lower than it otherwise would have been in 10 years time with a deal and 5 percent in a chaotic no deal.
The initial Finance Ministry research from January suggested that GDP would be 4.25 percentage points less than forecast by 2023 under a disorderly Brexit, while the Irish central bank put the hit at 6 percentage points over a decade
(Reporting by Padraic Halpin; Editing by Janet Lawrence)