Bavaria goes to the polls on Sunday and for the first time in 46 years, the ruling conservatives look as though they might lose their absolute majority.
The Christian Social Union or CSU stands at less than 50 percent in opinion polls, down from the almost 61 percent it won in the last election in 2003.
Analysts blame a lacklustre campaign and party leadership’s lack of charisma.
Speculation is rife there will be a coalition ruling Bavaria before long.
Polls show the CSU’s closest rivals, the center-left Social Democrats, has around 20 percent support.
The Greens are predicted to receive a double-digit percentage of the vote.
The liberal Free Democrats could make it back in for the first time in 14 years.
And Bavaria’s Free Voters, a group with no programme which wanta more local power, could also win seats for the first time ever.
The Left Party too is close to clearing the five percent hurdle needed to be represented in the assembly.
One thing is certain. A CSU loss on Sunday would send shockwaves through Berlin ahead of the federal election next year.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel needs a strong CSU to win again.