No end in sight to the pain in Spain?

By Catherine Hardy with Reuters, AFP

Published on 02/05/2016 - 17:34

It is not clear how the unprecedented situation in the country's modern history could be resolved if this second election is inconclusive.

Fresh election “unlikely” to end political deadlock
More likely to abstain
“Union of the left could prove uncomfortable for the PSOE

The pain in Spain

Research suggests a fresh election due to be held in Spain on June 26 is unlikely to break the political stalemate to form a government.

A previous vote in December produced the most fragmented result in decades.

Metroscopia poll

Published by El Pais newspaper
1,200 polled between April 26-28
People’s Party (PP) – 29% of votes (up from 28.7% in December)
Socialists (PSOE) – 20.3% (down from 22)
Podemos – 18.1% (down from 20.7)
Ciudadanos – 16.9 (up from 13.9)

11 provincias clave para el 26-J, según un estudio de Metroscopia https://t.co/HFj12DhPwq Por JuanJoseMateo</a> y <a href="https://twitter.com/jorgegarcia_es">jorgegarcia_es
— EL PAÍS (@el_pais) May 2, 2016

Los vetos son malos para la democracia. El PPopular</a> apuesta por sumar y pactar con los españoles <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/2demayo?src=hash">#2demayo</a><a href="https://t.co/rArITcuwAp">https://t.co/rArITcuwAp</a></p>— Mariano Rajoy Brey (marianorajoy) May 2, 2016

El adversario del PSOE son la desigualdad, la corrupción y la falta de oportunidades sanchezcastejon</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GanarAlPP?src=hash">#GanarAlPP</a> <a href="https://t.co/XOR0gXqKmE">https://t.co/XOR0gXqKmE</a></p>— PSOE (PSOE) April 30, 2016

Observers say the tiny variations in percentages from December are unlikely to translate into major changes in seats.

At least three parties are needed to obtain a majority.

Abstention rate

Four months of political bickering and failure to form a government are likely to boost abstention rates.

Around 30% say they plan to abstain, compared to 26.8% in December.

The situation could also play in favour of the two traditionally-dominant parties, the PP and the PSOE.

Podemos and Ciudadanos are still seen as lacking a strong enough structure to mobilise voters in many rural areas.

A union on the Left?

AVANCE | La suma de ahorapodemos</a> e <a href="https://twitter.com/iunida">iunida arrebata al PSOE</a> el liderazgo de la izquierda, según <a href="https://twitter.com/metroscopia">metroscopia https://t.co/gpgta0AZXP
— EL PAÍS (@el_pais) April 30, 2016

It was announced last week that Podemos is considering running on a joint platform with the far-left party, Izquierda Unida.

A combination of the two would capture 22.3% of the vote, overtaking the PSOE as Spain’s main left-wing party.

Experts say this could put the Socialists in the uneasy position of having to choose between being the junior coalition partner in a left-wing government or going into a grand coalition with the centre-right PP.

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