Greek crisis - default scenarios

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Greek crisis - default scenarios

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With hours to go before the IMF loan repayment demand expires, there is growing speculation that the IMF may agree to extend its deadline till after Greece’s referendum on Sunday.

Some analyst believe such a scenario is highly likely as Greece sails into uncharted financial waters.

Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets said: “They are not going to make today’s payment. So that does officially put them in arrears with the IMF, not necessarily a default, but arrears puts them inside the company of the likes of Zimbabwe, and so the next important date really is going to be the referendum on July 5th.”

If Greece does not pay, some euro zone officials will be hoping the Washington based lender will not immediately declare Athens in default but rather in arrears.

That could give Athens breathing space from other lenders’ repayment requests and allow the ECB to continue funding Greek banks’.

Some believe a week may be all it takes to strike a lasting deal.

Ed Dempsey, chief investment officer at Pension Partners said: “Most of the Greek debt is held by the ECB or its surrogates and lastly Greece is not an economic issue. this is not an economic problem. Greece is roughly two percent of Euro zone GDP, a far smaller percent of world GDP. This is really an issue about confusion and how do markets tease out and deal with the confusion about what might happen.”

Many scenarios are still possible but without the ECB’s supprt, the Greek banking sector will likely collapse, forcing Greece to introduce a parallel currency, like IOUs, to cover its domestic obligations.