Analysis: Iran 'divided' over Western pressure

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Analysis: Iran 'divided' over Western pressure

Analysis: Iran 'divided' over Western pressure
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There was a chain of events that led up to the publication of the IAEA report on Iran. From the allegations about an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the US to the controversial explosion at a Revolutionary Guards’ site in Iran.

Rumours persist about a military attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. While many experts believed that the IAEA report drew new conclusions, many say it did not lead to anything unexpected. euronews spoke to Iranian nuclear affairs analyst Reza Taghizadeh.

euronews, Babak Kamiar: Mr. Reza Taghizadeh, is the IAEA report and the subsequent resolution a victory for the Iranian government?

Reza Taghizadeh: Not at all. The anger expressed by Iranian diplomats about the resolution shows Iran’s complete dismay over its content. At the same time, the US president and his envoys welcomed its adoption. It shows Western countries are co-ordinating their future political or economic policies towards Iran together.

euronews: But Iranian officials say that the Director General has violated the Agency’s regulations by disclosing some of Iran’s confidential information.

Reza Taghizadeh: We cannot deny the extraordinary approach of the IAEA, but Iran’s situation amongst the Agency’s members is also extraordinary.The IAEA’s approach, including publication of documents about Iran’s covert activities, is the result of the way Iran has acted.

euronews: To what extent will the West be committed to the policy of dialogue instead of military measures? Experience, at least of the past few years, shows world powers don’t hesitate to go for the military option if it is in their interests to do so.

Reza Taghizadeh: I shall disagree with you on this. They do hesitate when it comes to military action but the West and the international community still have some possibilities which can be utilised before engaging in a war. They can impose sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran. Anyway, as long as Iran does not feel that the danger of military approach is there, it does not seem that it would change course over its nuclear programme.

euronews: So you think that if Iranian officials feel the seriousness of military threats and feel that it is a possibility, then they would make a visible change to their policies?

Reza Taghizadeh: The answer to this question depends on whether we can see coherence among Iranian politicians. In my opinion, such coherence does not exist at the moment. Those who lean towards the right of the Iranian political spectrum, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, may even welcome the military strike option because then they will have an excuse to have a tighter grip on society.

Those in the middle want to break this deadlock but they do not have the power to do so.

It appears they will be unable to gain the upper hand on this over the next weeks and months.