Ivory Coast may fall back into civil war, analysts predict

Analysts say Ivory Coast may fall back into civil war if other options fail to work.

There is a 20 per cent probability of an early return to civil war that would destabilise the region, according to Nomura analysts.

A power-sharing deal may be agreed or imposed by the African Union, the analysts argue. Such an agreement would be “messy,” they said, saying that option was 35 per cent likely.

Meanwhile, the possibility of Laurent Gbagbo stepping down is the highest of the three options, at 45 per cent. That would be a result of being pressured and starved of funds, the bank’s analysts said in a statement.

Almost 200 people have been killed in the violence that followed a November 28 election.

Alassane Ouattara was first announced to have won the vote, but a recount of ballots brought incumbent Laurent Gbagbo to power. Ouattara’s victory was recognised by the international community and he has formed his own cabinet, but is “holed-up” in a hotel in the capital Abidjan.

The power-sharing option carries the risk that Gbagbo may ask the United Nations to leave the Ivory Coast, further increasing the threat of a civil war, the analysts said. “A war in Ivory Coast could also destabilise the region which is still recovering from other conflicts,” their report said.

Ivory Coast has a population of 21 million and is located in west Africa, neighbouring Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, and Liberia. The country is important for its mining and global cocoa production.

Ali Sheikholeslami
euronews correspondent in London

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