Violence feared in Sudan as referendum looms

The 2005 peace agreement in Sudan put an end to Africa’s longest war, a bloody conflict between the north and south, that spanned more than five decades and claimed millions of lives.

The deal led to a unity government and the option of full independence for the south, to be decided by referendum in January 2011.

Talks between the Christian south and the Muslim- dominated north have come to nothing and there are very real fears that a fresh war is on the horizon.

The UN has warned that 2.8 million people risk displacement if fighting breaks out.

Sudan is strategically located between Africa’s Horn and the Sahel.

Many fear a secession could further destabilise the whole region, where extremist Muslim groups are a growing threat.

The key sticking point of a break-up is the disputed oil district of Abyei – on the border between north and south.

Southern oil accounts for the lion’s share of Sudan’s total output, but the bulk of the oil is moved through pipelines in the north to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

Clearly, both sides are going to have to compromise if the country splits, which is the most likely outcome according to analysts.

Another grave concern is that a vote for independence by the south could trigger further violence by ethnic minorities in other regions, particularly in the Western Dafur region.

Conflict there between the government and rebels over the last seven years has left millions dead and displaced, leading to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Even if the referendum passes off peacefully and both sides reach agreement on the difficult issues, the south still faces a major obstacle to its future, feuding ethnic tribes in the south have been fighting over cattle, land and water for hundreds of years, the violence has seen a upsurge in recent months.

It begs the question is southern Sudan ready for independence?

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