Not much separates the two candidates in Poland’s decisive presidential vote, which takes place on Sunday.
Some polls put conservative Jaroslaw Kaczynski neck and neck with rival Bronislaw Komorovski. Others suggest the more economically liberal Komorovski is ahead but Polish opinion polls have had a habit of underestimating Kaczynski.
For analysts like Rafal Benecki of ING Bank Slaski, the money markets would prefer a Komorovski victory.
“Should Kaczynski win the elections, we can expect that the status quo will be restored. The coalition will blame the presidential veto as their main obstacle to fiscal reforms. Should Komorovski defeat Kaczynski, we can expect only gradual fiscal reforms,” said Benecki.
Poland was the only EU country to escape recession last year but its budget deficit needs addressing.
The government wants to push on with cuts and with their man, Komorovski, as president they would be freer to do so.
Kaczynski opposes spending cuts and privatisation and has warned Poles during the campaign of the dangers of having both a president and prime minister from the same political party.