So just who is afraid of the big, bad euro? As it piles on value against the dollar, hitting a new record today, many worry about its effect on European growth. For one Deutsche Bank analyst, there is no point crying wolf until the authorities decide there is danger; “In fact we are now under one-30, but we were already at one-28 in January. Not much has happened since then, so negative effects are likely to be slight”, said Ulrich Beckmann.
However, in a rapidly changing situation, no sooner had he spoken than the one 30 mark was history. The euro’s journey over the past four years, has been steadily upwards; from its lowest point in 2000 to today’s high. It is a major swing over time, but the euro is a stable currency in monetary terms. This is one reason why it is becoming increasingly attractive as a foreign reserve holding, and euro strength has been further boosted by Russia’s central bank announcement yesterday that it is going to buy more european paper, and fewer greenbacks in future. The Americans only have themselves to blame as not even the mighty Federal Reserve boss Alan Greenspan seems prepared to stop the buck’s fall, predicting higher US interest rates before long, and that America’s current account deficit can only cut overseas investors appetite for the dollar. Add to this increasing conviction in the financial world that the US has shifted dollar policy, and you have a recipie for more rises.